Can Toads Sense Earthquakes?

The article “Can toads detect earthquakes?” was published in The Globe and Mail and is based on the work of British researchers in central Italy. The article was written from the work published by the British researchers, in the Journal of Zoology (Volume 281, Issue 4). The researchers believe that they have significant information that shows that common toads can detect earthquakes long before they are felt by any human or computer. The author of the article in The Globe and Mail does a fairly adequate job of compressing the research journal into an easy to read and easy to understand newspaper article. However, he/she did miss a few important points and added a few that weren’t necessarily stated in the primary source.

The bufo bufo or common toad

The Globe and Mail article did a very good job of presenting the general concepts of the research that was done in central Italy in May and April of 2009. It summarizes that while observing the common toad, called bufo bufo, British researchers observed a mass evacuation of toads from a breeding site, just 5 days before a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit. The newspaper article then goes on to say that perhaps the toads can sense something, which allows them to foresee an upcoming earthquake. The general outline and basic idea of the secondary literature followed the primary source fairly sufficiently.

However, one of the main differences between the two pieces of literature was the lack of detail in the secondary article. It is understandable that the newspaper article cannot be as scientific or even as long as the primary source, but some significant information was left out. First of all The Globe and Mail states “Since ancient times, anecdotes and folklore have linked unusual animal behavior to cataclysmic events like earthquakes, but hard evidence has been scarce.” (London— The Associated Press, 2010) The primary source does, however, include other examples where research was done and the results showed that other animals like bee-eaters, gulls and herons also took flight before earthquakes. This information directly opposes the information presented in the secondary source. What the secondary source failed to explain was that although other animals are known to flee before earthquakes, they usually fled minutes or even seconds before the actual earthquake. The toads are so fascinating because they left days before the earthquake and only returned after all of the after shocks were over. This was something that nobody has ever seen before.

The newspaper article contained other quotes from scientists including a seismologist named Roger Musson. He states, “What happens is somebody observes some strange animal behavior then there is an earthquake, so they link the two,” (London— The Associated Press, 2010). Musson is saying that the scientists just linked a toad’s odd behavior to an earthquake with no real evidence. Even though Musson’s quote was stated in the article, the primary source shows how they didn’t just track the toads and come to a conclusion. Since toads’ activity and breading are significantly affected by weather, the scientists took into account all weather factors. They measured max. and min. temperatures, humidity, wind speed and rainfall. After analyzing all of this data and comparing it with the toads’ movement, the scientists were confident that weather did not play a factor in the toads’ movement. “No unusual weather occurred in the days leading up to the EQ(earthquake) that could have caused toads to abandon spawning and leave the breeding site and toad numbers were not correlated with any of the climatic variables tested.” (Grant, R. A. and Halliday, T. (2010)). This shows that the scientists did not try to link the earthquake and the toads’ movement. They had significant evidence that attempted to cancel out any other reasons for the toads’ peculiar behavior.

Figure 1 – Stats showing environmental factors before and after earthquake

Predictor	Coefficient	se coefficient	T	P
Constant	−0.22	4.05	−0.05	0.96
Days since EP	0.10	0.03	2.88	0.01
TMIN	−0.01	0.07	−0.20	0.84
TMAX	0.06	0.10	0.67	0.51
UMID	−0.01	0.03	−0.16	0.87
PREC	0.03	0.04	0.97	0.34
VEL MED	0.02	0.26	0.09	0.93
	S=0.51	R2=50.6%	R2 (adj)=36.5%	P=0.013
Constant	1.87	3.70	0.51	0.62
Days since EQ	0.07	0.02	2.74	0.01
TMIN	0.01	0.06	0.17	0.87
TMAX	0.01	0.09	0.06	0.95
UMID	−0.02	0.03	−0.70	0.49
PREC	0.03	0.04	0.97	0.34
VEL MED	0.15	0.25	0.59	0.56
	S=0.52	R2=49.3%,	R2 (adj)=34.8%,	P=0.017
TMIN, minimum temperature; TMAX, maximum temperature; PREC, rainfall; VEL MED, wind speed; EP, earthquake period; EQ, earthquake.

When the author of The Globe and Mail attempted to explain how the toads detected the oncoming earthquake, he/she only stated one possibility. “…one possibility is that the animals sensed a change in the amount of radon gas emitted by the Earth because of the buildup of pressure prior to a quake.” (London— The Associated Press, 2010). The author presented that there weren’t many explanations of why the toads quickly changed locations and stopped breeding. However, the primary source that was published in the Journal of Zoology, states two plausible explanations of the toads’ strange behavior. It does mention the release of radon gas, which changes the currents and electric fields in the atmosphere. The primary source also mentions a release of gas and water. This causes the release of gravity waves which toads may be able to detect. The author of the secondary source did mention one of the ways that the toads may be able to predict earthquakes but the writer did not include all of the other explanations that may be true.

In general the main idea of the two articles seemed to be somewhat different. The secondary source was mainly presenting the idea that toads may be able to predict earthquakes. It was very broad and did not get into many details as is expected in a public newspaper. However, the main idea of the primary literature was not just that toads may be able to predict earthquakes, but the fact that they predicted it far in advance. The toads retreated 5 days before the actual earthquake hit. This is a completely new and astonishing discover. Scientists have only seen organisms predict earthquakes minutes or seconds before they actually occur. I feel that this main point was not strongly emphasized in the article posted in The Globe and Mail.

Overall the writer of the secondary article did a fairly good job of presenting the information of the research to the public. He/she condensed a large scientific article into a short, easy to understand piece of literature available for the public. However, I do feel that some main points were forgotten and other points added. In conclusion, both articles show the incredible abilities of a tiny creature that seems almost insignificant to much of the western world. They both show how science is making new, extraordinary discoveries everyday and how we still have lots to learn about our incredible world.

By Peter Dickson

Student ID: 0705159

Works Cited

"Can Toads Detect Earthquakes? - The Globe and Mail." Home - The Globe and Mail. Web. 23 Sept. 2010. .

Grant, R. A. and Halliday, T. (2010), Predicting the unpredictable; evidence of pre-seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toad. Journal of Zoology, 281: 263–271. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2010.00700.x

Wildlife Stock Photos and Pictures | PhotoBank NaturePhoto-CZ. Web. 23 Sept. 2010.